Thoughts on Forecasts

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May 10, 2013

“Forecasts are not always wrong; more often than not, they can be reasonably accurate. And that is what makes them so dangerous. They are usually constructed on the assumption that tomorrow’s world will be much like today’s….

The better approach, I believe, is to accept uncertainty, try to understand it, and make it part of your reasoning. Uncertainty today is not just an occasional, temporary deviation from a reasonable predictability; it is a basic structural feature of the environment in which we operate.”

Pierre Wack

Scenarios: Uncharted Waters Ahead